"A new evidence review draws on peer-reviewed research, government data, and field reporting to document why 454,000 residents face one of Kenya's most urgent climate emergencies."
Why This Matters
Not One Threat, But Many All at Once. Elgeyo Marakwet County, perched along the western wall of the Great Rift Valley, doesn't face a single climate hazard. It faces a convergence of them: landslides that now kill dozens in a single night, droughts that drain livelihoods across the semi-arid valley floor, temperatures projected to rise by up to 2.5°C by mid-century, and rainfall that has become so unpredictable that virtually every household identifies it as an existential threat.
Layered onto this are deep structural vulnerabilities 57% of the population lives in poverty, nearly three quarters of households are food insecure, and only 26% have access to clean drinking water. Women, children, and youth bear the sharpest impacts.
Key Findings
01 Rainfall Crisis
Both rainy seasons have become erratic in timing, intensity, and duration. Traditional irrigation systems, including the furrow networks communities have maintained for generations, can no longer compensate for declining water availability. 99.5% of households named unreliable rainfall as their most significant challenge.
02 Disaster Acceleration
Major climate disasters that once struck roughly every decade are now occurring every few years. Scientists attribute this escalation directly to climate change, with landslide frequency in the Rift Valley projected to increase by 20–30% by 2050.
03 Terrain Vulnerability
The county's ancient hard rock beneath loose volcanic soils makes it inherently unstable. Nearly 400 hectares of forest were lost on the escarpment in two decades, directly increasing landslide risk.
04 Gendered Impact
Female-headed households experience consumption gaps of up to 21% compared to male-headed households during weather-related crop failures. School destruction drives permanent dropout and early marriage for girls.
Recommendations
Long-term Resilience
Invest in sustained, multi-year climate resilience programming rather than short-term project cycles.
Tailored Zoning
Programming must be differentiated landslide preparedness in the highlands and drought resilience in the valley floor.
Gender Equality
Centre women and youth in every intervention. Gender-responsive design must be a baseline requirement.
Support Our Resilience Work
"The evidence is clear. The need is now. Help us build a resilient future for Elgeyo Marakwet."